Thu, Apr 13, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
New Jersey Devils 5, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 111 | 17 | 212 | 14 | 534 |
| WSH | 38 | 112 | 07 | 04 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:36WSHJoe SnivelyAssists: Sonny Milano · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 5:59WSHRasmus SandinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 10:18WSHCraig SmithUnassisted · Snap, 0.25 xG0–3
- P1 17:06NJDErik HaulaAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Luke Hughes · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 1:05WSHTom WilsonAssists: Nick Jensen, Dylan Strome · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 18:36NJDMiles WoodPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Dawson Mercer · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 3:17NJDErik HaulaAssists: Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 12:23NJDDougie HamiltonAssists: Damon Severson, Jesper Boqvist · Slap, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 4:33NJDLuke HughesGWGAssists: Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P2 11:36NJDTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:20NJDCurtis Lazar: Broken stick2 min
- P2 14:20WSHRasmus Sandin: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:20NJDCurtis Lazar: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:20WSHRasmus Sandin: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 16:45WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 3:45WSHRasmus Sandin: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:52NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Boqvist – Sharangovich4:03
xG 0.57–0.07 (89%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Haula – Bratt – Hughes6:07
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 1–0
- Haula – Boqvist – Sharangovich6:02
xG 0.65–0.24 (73%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer12:45
xG 0.81–0.46 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Hughes11:39
xG 0.96–0.44 (69%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Severson – Siegenthaler7:06
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 13–2goals 0–1
- Severson – Bahl8:40
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestAube-Kubel – Malenstyn – Protas8:47
xG 0.37–0.10 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Wilson – Sheary – Strome13:18
xG 0.67–0.52 (56%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Kuznetsov – Milano – Snively10:57
xG 0.25–0.48 (35%)attempts 3–14goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Smith14:12
xG 1.10–1.90 (37%)attempts 16–24goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – Alexeyev10:31
xG 0.51–0.09 (85%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Jensen – Alexeyev3:29
xG 0.22–0.33 (41%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Jensen – Sandin14:23
xG 0.63–0.82 (43%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).