Thu, Apr 13, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 05 | 39 | 321 |
| NYR | 05 | 17 | 112 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:38NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 3:09TORTimothy LiljegrenAssists: David Kampf, Jake McCabe · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 6:26NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 7:48TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 12:21TORNoel AcciariGWGUnassisted · Poke, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 13:55NYRNiko Mikkola: Holding2 min
- P3 6:13TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:12TORLuke Schenn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Nylander – Knies10:47
xG 0.75–0.16 (83%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Marner – Matthews3:06
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Kerfoot – Acciari6:37
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews13:15
xG 0.37–1.11 (25%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Liljegren13:24
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Brodie – Holl16:34
xG 0.72–0.58 (55%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Schenn – Rielly14:38
xG 0.87–0.89 (49%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Trocheck – Panarin13:11
xG 1.00–0.25 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière8:59
xG 0.38–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Zibanejad – Kakko – Lafrenière4:02
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Motte8:28
xG 0.13–0.49 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller15:22
xG 1.05–0.60 (63%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Fox – Lindgren17:35
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Mikkola – Schneider15:40
xG 0.71–1.06 (40%)attempts 10–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).