Thu, Apr 13, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 3, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 15 | 18 | 110 | 01 | 324 |
| NSH | 212 | 011 | 16 | 12 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:02NSHMark JankowskiSHAssists: Tyson Barrie, Michael McCarron · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 14:19MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Jon Merrill, Gustav Nyquist · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 16:19NSHKiefer SherwoodAssists: Tommy Novak, Luke Evangelista · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 10:46MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Marcus Foligno, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 14:04NSHYakov TreninAssists: Juuso Parssinen, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 14:20MINNic PetanAssists: Sammy Walker, Damien Giroux · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- OT 2:44NSHJuuso ParssinenGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Cody Glass · Between legs, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:07NSHCal Foote: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:33MINJon Merrill: Interference2 min
- P1 16:29MINDamien Giroux: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:24MINJon Merrill: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Glass
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Duhaime – Dewar9:43
xG 0.72–0.29 (72%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Foligno – Rossi5:10
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Petan – Walker – Giroux5:00
xG 0.50–0.34 (59%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Nyquist – Foligno – Gaudreau6:20
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Faber8:30
xG 0.74–0.08 (90%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Merrill – Dumba10:57
xG 0.73–0.37 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 2–2
- Goligoski – Klingberg4:08
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – McCarron – Asplund9:49
xG 0.74–0.18 (81%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Parssinen9:41
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Sanford – Glass – Tomasino10:56
xG 0.15–0.39 (28%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista13:04
xG 0.74–1.06 (41%)attempts 16–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Fabbro15:37
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Foote – Stastney14:33
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Livingstone2:15
xG 0.08–0.16 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).