Thu, Apr 13, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 2, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 114 | 112 | 03 | 229 |
| EDM | 213 | 24 | 119 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16EDMMattias JanmarkAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Stuart Skinner · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 6:56EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P1 9:44SJSNoah GregorAssists: Thomas Bordeleau, Steven Lorentz · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 5:02EDMEvan BouchardGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto · Snap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 14:04EDMMattias JanmarkSHAssists: Derek Ryan · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–4
- P2 18:48SJSSteven LorentzPPAssists: Tomas Hertl, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 15:55EDMEvander KaneAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Cody Ceci · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:27SJSKevin Labanc: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:01EDMWarren Foegele: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:52SJSTomas Hertl: Holding2 min
- P2 12:45EDMEvander Kane: Interference2 min
- P2 16:49EDMKlim Kostin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:18EDMEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:12SJSErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestLorentz – Gregor – Bordeleau6:40
xG 1.03–0.17 (86%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Couture – Hertl – Peterson9:16
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Labanc – Svechnikov – Robins8:38
xG 0.11–0.61 (15%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenning – Ferraro11:33
xG 0.92–0.83 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Thrun8:16
xG 0.31–0.49 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Simek – Knyzhov7:00
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestFoegele – Ryan – McLeod8:52
xG 0.69–0.16 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid7:38
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Janmark – Kostin9:12
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto7:01
xG 0.36–0.87 (29%)attempts 5–9goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse11:59
xG 1.17–0.68 (63%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Kulak – Desharnais12:20
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard11:32
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).