Thu, Apr 13, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 5, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 112 | 214 | 210 | 536 |
| ANA | 113 | 04 | 27 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:44ANATroy TerryAssists: Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 16:57LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Adrian Kempe, Matt Roy · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 10:15LAKAdrian KempePPAssists: Drew Doughty, Viktor Arvidsson · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 11:04LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 1:27ANAMax JonesAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Ryan Strome · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 7:26LAKAdrian KempePPGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Viktor Arvidsson · Slap, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 14:51ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Adam Henrique, Troy Terry · Snap, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 18:21LAKAdrian KempeENAssists: Matt Roy, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.49 xG5–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 8:01ANAMax Jones: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:59LAKSean Durzi: Interference2 min
- P1 16:57ANARyan Strome: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 9:18ANATrevor Zegras: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:21ANADrew Helleson: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:28LAKTrevor Moore: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:40ANARyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:34ANATrevor Zegras: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 6:46ANARyan Strome: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:25ANATrevor Zegras: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:25LAKPhillip Danault: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:25LAKPhillip Danault: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:25ANADerek Grant: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:25ANATrevor Zegras: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:42ANASam Carrick: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:42ANAMax Jones: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:42ANASam Carrick: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zegras won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore9:04
xG 0.83–0.20 (80%)attempts 19–2goals 1–0
- Grundstrom – MacEwen – Kupari9:29
xG 0.49–0.06 (89%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:02
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 1–2
- Iafallo – Lizotte – Kaliyev8:36
xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson13:08
xG 0.74–0.27 (74%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Roy14:46
xG 0.93–0.57 (62%)attempts 17–13goals 2–2
- Walker – Durzi11:58
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Strome – Vatrano – Jones7:51
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Grant – Carrick – Groulx5:48
xG 0.06–0.26 (19%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Lundeström – Nesterenko5:32
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Zegras9:56
xG 0.32–0.63 (34%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – LaCombe9:39
xG 0.10–0.32 (25%)attempts 2–11goals 1–0
- White – Helleson8:50
xG 0.14–0.39 (27%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Helleson – LaCombe5:18
xG 0.06–0.38 (14%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).