Thu, Apr 13, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Seattle Kraken 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 15 | 19 | 15 | 319 |
| SEA | 113 | 012 | 06 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:56VGKReilly SmithUnassisted · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 16:20SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Morgan Geekie · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 12:37VGKAlec MartinezSHGWGAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel · Bat, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 19:22VGKChandler StephensonENUnassisted · Poke, 0.45 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P2 4:48SEAAdam Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:01VGKJack Eichel: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:29SEADaniel Sprong: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:45VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Holding2 min
- P2 17:25VGKMichael Amadio: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:16VGKBrayden McNabb: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:54SEAYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:54SEAYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:54VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:54VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Eichel – Dorofeyev11:51
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Kessel – Stephenson – Barbashev9:30
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Amadio7:42
xG 0.20–0.44 (32%)attempts 4–13goals 1–1
- Blueger – Kolesar – Roy9:10
xG 0.21–0.64 (25%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo16:34
xG 0.72–0.26 (74%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore12:27
xG 0.24–0.55 (30%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- McNabb – Hague2:26
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Sprong – Tanev7:06
xG 0.77–0.28 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Wennberg – Geekie10:28
xG 0.65–0.25 (73%)attempts 20–5goals 1–1
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:58
xG 0.55–0.21 (73%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers9:53
xG 0.18–0.29 (39%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Soucy14:30
xG 0.66–0.24 (74%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen12:40
xG 0.47–0.16 (74%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn14:37
xG 0.94–0.64 (59%)attempts 26–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).