Tue, Oct 10, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 017 | 110 | 39 | 436 |
| PIT | 113 | 116 | 012 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:04PITBryan RustAssists: Kris Letang, Lars Eller · Tip-in, 0.79 xG0–1
- P2 11:56PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 15:37CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Alex Vlasic, Connor Bedard · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 10:05CHICole GuttmanAssists: Seth Jones, Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 15:29CHIJason DickinsonGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 18:33CHINick FolignoENAssists: Corey Perry, Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.77 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:53PITLars Eller: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 11:34CHIWyatt Kaiser: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:11PITJeff Carter: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:56CHICorey Perry: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 2:28PITMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:35PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Raddysh – Reichel9:46
xG 0.92–0.74 (55%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Perry – Foligno – Dickinson6:56
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Athanasiou – Katchouk – Guttman8:27
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Hall – Donato – Bedard12:45
xG 0.59–0.78 (43%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTinordi – Kaiser11:10
xG 1.22–0.30 (80%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Jones – Vlasic14:16
xG 0.69–1.08 (39%)attempts 13–15goals 2–1
- Murphy – Korchinski12:27
xG 0.41–1.51 (21%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Smith – Rakell12:05
xG 0.71–0.34 (68%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:03
xG 0.86–0.71 (55%)attempts 13–18goals 1–2
- Carter – Nieto – Acciari6:00
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Eller – Harkins – O'Connor7:27
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Joseph2:36
xG 0.35–0.05 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Joseph5:12
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Joseph2:14
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).