Tue, Oct 10, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Seattle Kraken 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 013 | 110 | 010 | 133 |
| VGK | 210 | 111 | 17 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:16VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Brett Howden, Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:57VGKJonathan MarchessaultGWGUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 1:20VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Brayden McNabb · Snap, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 8:19SEAJared McCannAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 18:45VGKJack EichelENAssists: Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:12VGKPaul Cotter: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:45VGKWilliam Carrier: Holding2 min
- P2 8:50SEAAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:39VGKBrayden Pachal: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:39SEAAdam Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:02VGKBrett Howden: Match penalty5 min
- P3 11:11SEAJared McCann: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:14SEAJaden Schwartz: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers7:39
xG 0.81–0.64 (56%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Bellemare – Tanev – Yamamoto2:57
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg9:07
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen8:04
xG 0.50–0.64 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn13:22
xG 1.14–0.63 (64%)attempts 22–6goals 0–1
- Schultz – Dumoulin9:30
xG 0.52–0.70 (43%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
- Oleksiak – Borgen11:05
xG 0.56–0.85 (40%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Barbashev – Eichel9:00
xG 0.73–0.29 (71%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy4:37
xG 0.51–0.10 (83%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Cotter2:42
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Amadio – Cotter6:25
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hague14:30
xG 0.75–0.39 (66%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Hutton – Pachal10:28
xG 0.61–0.51 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore11:55
xG 0.70–0.62 (53%)attempts 12–17goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).