Wed, Oct 11, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 05 | 07 | 121 |
| BOS | 113 | 110 | 110 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37CHIConnor BedardAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Donato · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:22BOSTrent FredericAssists: Brandon Carlo, Matthew Poitras · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 13:09BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 19:04BOSDavid PastrnakENAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.76 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:50CHIWyatt Kaiser: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:58BOSHampus Lindholm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:22CHIWyatt Kaiser: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:48CHIConnor Bedard: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:01BOSJake DeBrusk: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:20BOSMilan Lucic: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:12BOSJohn Beecher: Boarding2 min
- P3 3:12CHIJason Dickinson: Instigator2 min
- P3 3:12CHIJason Dickinson: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:12BOSJohn Beecher: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:12CHIJason Dickinson: Instigator misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beecher won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Foligno – Johnson2:34
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Raddysh – Reichel7:17
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Hall – Donato – Bedard4:08
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Athanasiou – Donato – Bedard8:22
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Korchinski12:00
xG 0.98–0.65 (60%)attempts 16–20goals 0–1
- Murphy – Kaiser2:11
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Tinordi – Kaiser11:38
xG 0.39–0.63 (38%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestFrederic – Geekie – Poitras6:45
xG 0.41–0.11 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Lucic – Lauko – Beecher5:44
xG 0.35–0.17 (68%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk6:58
xG 0.28–0.13 (69%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Pastrnak – Zacha6:13
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo11:52
xG 1.49–0.47 (76%)attempts 30–11goals 1–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy3:08
xG 0.09–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Forbort12:34
xG 0.38–0.42 (47%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).