Wed, Oct 11, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 5, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 214 | 214 | 537 |
| LAK | 011 | 219 | 06 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:25COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 2:54COLCale MakarPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 3:47COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Devon Toews, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 6:18LAKCarl GrundstromAssists: Phillip Danault · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 19:55LAKQuinton ByfieldAssists: Anze Kopitar · Deflected, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 4:59COLMikko RantanenAssists: Jack Johnson, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 16:08COLMiles WoodENAssists: Ross Colton, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.73 xG5–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:45COLValeri Nichushkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:32LAKAlex Laferriere: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:36LAKAdrian Kempe: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:36COLCale Makar: Embellishment2 min
- P1 12:49COLJonathan Drouin: Holding2 min
- P2 2:24LAKCarl Grundstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:30COLCale Makar: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:54LAKMatt Roy: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:54COLKurtis MacDermid: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:54LAKPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:54LAKAlex Laferriere: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:54COLLogan O'Connor: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:25COLBowen Byram: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:25COLBowen Byram: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen12:49
xG 0.82–0.21 (79%)attempts 14–13goals 3–1
- Johansen – Lehkonen – Nichushkin9:36
xG 0.55–0.29 (65%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- MacDermid – Olofsson – O'Connor2:29
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Tatar – Wood – Colton6:28
xG 0.17–0.63 (21%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Byram11:07
xG 0.94–0.24 (79%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar12:11
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 16–14goals 2–1
- Johnson – Manson7:43
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Grundstrom – Dubois2:01
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Danault – Grundstrom – Moore2:37
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Fiala – Dubois – Laferriere10:39
xG 0.58–0.73 (44%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Lewis – Danault – Moore7:12
xG 0.06–0.34 (15%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gavrikov – Roy13:06
xG 0.56–0.76 (42%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Doughty – Anderson15:27
xG 0.59–0.90 (40%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Englund – Bjornfot8:53
xG 0.09–0.56 (14%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).