Thu, Oct 12, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Detroit Red Wings 3, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 014 | 111 | 210 | 335 |
| NJD | 06 | 215 | 26 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:14DETDaniel SprongUnassisted · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 13:39NJDJack HughesPPAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 18:43NJDJack HughesAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jonas Siegenthaler · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 10:43DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 15:37NJDDougie HamiltonAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 18:29NJDErik HaulaENGWGAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler, John Marino · Wrist, 0.78 xG2–4
- P3 19:26DETRobby FabbriPPAssists: J.T. Compher, Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:54DETJake Walman: Interference2 min
- P1 8:38NJDCurtis Lazar: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:38DETJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P1 15:14NJDJack Hughes: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:56DETDavid Perron: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:23DETChristian Fischer: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:45NJDJack Hughes: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:37DETDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:20DETJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P3 17:30NJDJesper Bratt: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFischer – Kostin – Veleno6:25
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Perron – Copp – Rasmussen2:00
xG 0.12–0.06 (68%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Copp – Sprong – Rasmussen8:25
xG 0.67–0.64 (51%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Compher – Fabbri – Raymond7:51
xG 0.51–0.49 (51%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider12:47
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Holl – Gostisbehere9:44
xG 0.70–0.59 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Petry – Chiarot11:57
xG 0.27–0.74 (27%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestLazar – Nosek – McLeod6:33
xG 0.62–0.02 (97%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Bratt – Hughes9:47
xG 0.71–0.41 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer10:18
xG 0.60–0.63 (49%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Haula – Palat – Holtz6:53
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler13:04
xG 1.20–0.54 (69%)attempts 17–14goals 2–1
- Smith – Hughes9:36
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Marino – Bahl15:17
xG 0.32–0.61 (34%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).