Thu, Oct 12, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 1, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 06 | 112 | 03 | 03 | 1 | 124 |
| DAL | 010 | 110 | 010 | 04 | 2 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:18DALJamie BennAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Wyatt Johnston · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 2:37STLTyler TuckerAssists: Jakub Vrana, Sammy Blais · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 2. STL Brayden Schenn scored
- 3. DAL Matt Duchene scored
- 4. STL Pavel Buchnevich stopped
- 5. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:00DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:06DALJason Robertson: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:46STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:05STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:53DALJoe Pavelski: Interference2 min
- P2 17:44STLJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min
- OT 4:17STLKevin Hayes: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dellandrea won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Vrana – Blais7:51
xG 0.13–0.04 (78%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Schenn – Saad – Kapanen9:44
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Toropchenko – Neighbours7:13
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas10:36
xG 0.21–0.71 (23%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko17:27
xG 0.61–0.43 (59%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Scandella – Tucker8:51
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Faulk – Krug14:55
xG 0.47–0.81 (37%)attempts 11–27goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dadonov – Johnston5:17
xG 0.59–0.08 (88%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Seguin – Robertson10:50
xG 0.65–0.44 (60%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston4:45
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Duchene – Marchment – Dellandrea5:14
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen12:47
xG 1.02–0.15 (87%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Harley10:47
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Heiskanen – Harley2:42
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).