Thu, Oct 12, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Florida Panthers 0, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 014 | 012 | 015 | 041 |
| MIN | 15 | 111 | 05 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:54MINBrock FaberGWGAssists: Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 12:56MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 18:09MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:10FLAUvis Balinskis: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:14FLAJosh Mahura: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:14MINMatt Boldy: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:48FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:46MINJake Middleton: Interference2 min
- P3 0:18FLAEvan Rodrigues: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:54FLANiko Mikkola: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:54FLAUvis Balinskis: Interference2 min
- P3 9:54MINBrock Faber: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:45MINMarcus Foligno: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Rodrigues10:57
xG 0.80–0.16 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Cousins – Tkachuk – Luostarinen8:12
xG 0.70–0.19 (79%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Lorentz – Lomberg4:12
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Lundell – Samoskevich8:04
xG 0.11–0.22 (34%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Forsling13:41
xG 0.76–0.16 (82%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola12:53
xG 0.66–0.17 (79%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Mahura – Balinskis9:50
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Rossi6:57
xG 0.06–0.18 (26%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:09
xG 0.00–0.25 (1%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Maroon – Duhaime – Dewar5:45
xG 0.28–0.55 (34%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy7:58
xG 0.04–0.61 (6%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Merrill – Addison12:11
xG 0.07–0.37 (16%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Brodin – Faber14:29
xG 0.33–0.78 (29%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Middleton12:27
xG 0.18–0.89 (17%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).