Thu, Oct 12, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Seattle Kraken 0, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 012 | 04 | 07 | 023 |
| NSH | 015 | 113 | 27 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:24NSHColton SissonsSHGWGAssists: Cole Smith · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–1
- P3 10:03NSHGustav NyquistAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Ryan McDonagh · Deflected, 0.01 xG0–2
- P3 18:19NSHJuuso ParssinenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.44 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:21SEAWill Borgen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 1:21NSHFilip Forsberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:37SEABrian Dumoulin: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:07SEAJamie Oleksiak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:55NSHCody Glass: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:05SEAVince Dunn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:24NSHColton Sissons: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg11:04
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Bellemare – Yamamoto – Kartye3:28
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen8:35
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers10:22
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Dumoulin9:24
xG 0.34–0.03 (92%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen11:57
xG 0.55–0.24 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Borgen2:15
xG 0.00–0.03 (4%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Forsberg – Glass2:42
xG 0.33–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Parssinen6:07
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Sherwood8:28
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Glass – Smith3:52
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Barrie2:07
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Carrier12:37
xG 0.71–0.63 (53%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Barrie – Lauzon13:00
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).