Thu, Oct 12, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vegas Golden Knights 4, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 113 | 29 | 110 | 432 |
| SJS | 16 | 09 | 08 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:25VGKMichael AmadioAssists: William Karlsson, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 17:48SJSFilip ZadinaAssists: Tomas Hertl, Henry Thrun · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 18:31VGKNicolas HagueGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 19:24VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Jonas Rondbjerg, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 2:11VGKBrayden PachalAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:21SJSKyle Burroughs: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:21VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:46VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Holding2 min
- P1 13:19VGKIvan Barbashev: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:26SJSMatt Benning: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Barbashev – Eichel15:27
xG 1.36–0.50 (73%)attempts 23–11goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Amadio – Dorofeyev11:39
xG 0.55–0.11 (84%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Rondbjerg9:09
xG 0.09–0.20 (29%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Cotter11:52
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hague15:34
xG 0.98–0.24 (80%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- McNabb – Theodore18:49
xG 0.78–0.70 (53%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
- Hutton – Pachal13:22
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Zetterlund – Sturm7:35
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Hertl – Zadina9:23
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Duclair – Bordeleau – Barabanov9:07
xG 0.12–0.30 (28%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Granlund – Kunin – Eklund10:40
xG 0.02–1.26 (1%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Ferraro14:11
xG 0.92–0.25 (79%)attempts 16–12goals 0–2
- Rutta – Thrun14:36
xG 0.27–0.51 (35%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Benning14:59
xG 0.21–1.32 (14%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).