Fri, Oct 13, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Washington Capitals 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 010 | 313 | 112 | 435 |
| WSH | 08 | 07 | 04 | 019 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:07PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 5:51PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 11:46PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 16:57PITReilly SmithAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.03 xG4–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:39PITRickard Rakell: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:04WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:12WSHMartin Fehérváry: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:12PITBryan Rust: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:46WSHRasmus Sandin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:14PITMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:37WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:46PITLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:35PITMarcus Pettersson: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:35WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Smith – Rakell9:41
xG 1.43–0.22 (86%)attempts 20–8goals 2–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:12
xG 0.76–0.18 (80%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Carter – Nieto – Acciari11:15
xG 0.02–0.31 (5%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- Eller – Harkins – O'Connor7:05
xG 0.09–0.54 (14%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Joseph8:53
xG 0.98–0.37 (73%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson13:54
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Letang – Graves18:41
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Milano – Strome – Phillips9:18
xG 0.24–0.26 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – McMichael12:06
xG 0.26–0.70 (27%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Dowd – Mantha – Malenstyn7:56
xG 0.24–0.80 (23%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom9:42
xG 0.28–0.85 (25%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Sandin2:19
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Johansen2:02
xG 0.08–0.05 (60%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jensen – Sandin3:42
xG 0.07–0.13 (34%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).