Sat, Oct 14, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Nashville Predators 2, Boston Bruins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 115 | 113 | 08 | 236 |
| BOS | 111 | 111 | 18 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:29NSHColton SissonsAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 14:48BOSJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 14:46BOSDavid PastrnakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
- P2 16:54NSHColton SissonsAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 2:52BOSJames van RiemsdykPPGWGAssists: Charlie McAvoy, David Pastrnak · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:21BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:08BOSCharlie McAvoy: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 7:38NSHTommy Novak: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:18BOSDerek Forbort: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:49NSHKiefer Sherwood: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:19BOSJakub Lauko: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 10:28BOSHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P2 12:23BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:46NSHAlexandre Carrier: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P3 2:10NSHJeremy Lauzon: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:31NSHYakov Trenin: Interference2 min
- P3 14:19NSHColton Sissons: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beecher won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg3:24
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Glass – Parssinen – Evangelista2:26
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Novak – Tomasino – Smith2:38
xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Sherwood8:09
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Carrier11:37
xG 1.44–0.56 (72%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Josi – Barrie4:43
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro7:33
xG 0.09–0.23 (29%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestFrederic – Geekie – Poitras7:44
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Pastrnak – Zacha6:29
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Lucic – Lauko – Beecher4:43
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk7:48
xG 0.40–1.01 (29%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy10:25
xG 0.58–0.15 (79%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Forbort8:59
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Lindholm – Carlo9:41
xG 0.19–0.81 (19%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).