Sat, Oct 14, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Rangers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 017 | 217 | 342 |
| CBJ | 29 | 210 | 12 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:50NYRErik GustafssonAssists: Adam Fox, Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 9:36CBJBoone JennerAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 17:45CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 12:30CBJBoone JennerAssists: Jake Bean · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 13:37CBJDavid JiricekGWGAssists: Patrik Laine, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 10:53NYRWill CuylleAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 15:54CBJJustin DanforthAssists: Cole Sillinger, Kent Johnson · Snap, 0.24 xG2–5
- P3 19:24NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:54NYRAdam Fox: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:38CBJMathieu Olivier: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:19CBJDavid Jiricek: Interference2 min
- P3 18:34CBJDamon Severson: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Laine
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Kakko11:31
xG 1.10–0.41 (73%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Trocheck – Panarin – Cuylle3:04
xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Trocheck – Cuylle9:36
xG 0.53–0.19 (74%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Bonino – Goodrow – Vesey5:39
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Fox16:47
xG 1.80–0.61 (75%)attempts 30–12goals 2–0
- Trouba – Miller17:02
xG 1.04–0.57 (65%)attempts 20–10goals 0–2
- Jones – Schneider12:06
xG 0.64–0.65 (50%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Marchenko13:33
xG 0.66–0.64 (51%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Foudy7:01
xG 0.13–0.42 (24%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Danforth – Johnson – Sillinger11:09
xG 0.48–0.96 (33%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
- Laine – Texier – Fantilli12:35
xG 0.68–1.21 (36%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gudbranson – Bean14:21
xG 0.70–0.92 (43%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
- Severson – Boqvist14:34
xG 0.82–1.13 (42%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Provorov – Jiricek14:54
xG 0.04–0.92 (4%)attempts 3–20goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).