Sat, Oct 14, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Seattle Kraken 1, St. Louis Blues 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 09 | 111 | 09 | 02 | 0 | 131 |
| STL | 04 | 19 | 011 | 01 | 1 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:40SEAJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Vince Dunn · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 7:49STLJordan KyrouAssists: Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. STL Brayden Schenn stopped
- 2. SEA Matty Beniers stopped
- 3. STL Jordan Kyrou stopped
- 4. SEA Oliver Bjorkstrand stopped
- 5. STL Robert Thomas scored
- 6. SEA Jordan Eberle stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:55SEAVince Dunn: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:28SEAAlexander Wennberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:47STLSammy Blais: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 16:14SEAJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:00SEAVince Dunn: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestBellemare – Yamamoto – Kartye6:26
xG 0.55–0.30 (65%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen9:44
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers11:48
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Schwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg11:43
xG 0.10–0.44 (18%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen13:20
xG 0.76–0.55 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn18:28
xG 0.74–0.62 (55%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin11:15
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Vrana – Blais7:02
xG 0.67–0.16 (80%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kapanen – Toropchenko4:04
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Saad – Kyrou – Thomas9:49
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Schenn – Saad – Kapanen3:04
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Tucker8:24
xG 0.54–0.26 (68%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug15:41
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko18:41
xG 0.56–1.33 (30%)attempts 20–30goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).