Sat, Oct 14, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 4, Edmonton Oilers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 27 | 16 | 13 | 416 |
| EDM | 18 | 218 | 014 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:42EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 9:25VANAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 17:51VANNils HoglanderAssists: Brock Boeser, Tyler Myers · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 1:45EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 2:36VANJack StudnickaAssists: Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 9:29EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 2:56VANSam LaffertyGWGAssists: Nils Hoglander · Snap, 0.19 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:03VANFilip Hronek: Holding2 min
- P1 8:37EDMZach Hyman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:12VANDakota Joshua: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:04VANConor Garland: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:08VANNoah Juulsen: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:55VANIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:24EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P3 7:02VANFilip Hronek: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:10VANPhillip Di Giuseppe: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:35EDMConnor McDavid: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGarland – Pettersson – Kuzmenko4:44
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Studnicka – Hoglander2:52
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Joshua – Beauvillier – Suter9:04
xG 0.18–0.48 (27%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser8:42
xG 0.11–1.23 (8%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes3:22
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Cole – Hronek4:49
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Cole – Juulsen2:07
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl9:41
xG 1.10–0.33 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Foegele – McLeod – Holloway7:34
xG 0.81–0.44 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Kane – Brown – McDavid11:04
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 18–2goals 0–1
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:07
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse15:10
xG 1.95–0.58 (77%)attempts 33–11goals 1–1
- Kulak – Broberg10:41
xG 0.30–0.17 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Nurse – Broberg2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).