Sat, Oct 14, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Anaheim Ducks 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 08 | 18 | 123 |
| VGK | 112 | 113 | 213 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:58VGKJack EichelPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 15:03VGKChandler StephensonGWGAssists: Paul Cotter, Brayden McNabb · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 6:16VGKShea TheodorePPAssists: Jack Eichel, Chandler Stephenson · Slap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 6:45ANAMason McTavishAssists: Jamie Drysdale, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 17:32VGKJonas RondbjergENAssists: Nicolas Hague, Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.78 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 7:18VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:45VGKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:45ANASam Carrick: Elbowing5 min · PPG
- P2 2:03ANAIlya Lyubushkin: Interference2 min
- P2 6:51ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:51VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:04VGKIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:03ANARoss Johnston: Kneeing2 min
- P3 2:11VGKKeegan Kolesar: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:11VGKKeegan Kolesar: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:11ANAMax Jones: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:27ANARyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:27VGKBrayden McNabb: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:05ANAFrank Vatrano: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:12ANASam Carrick: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – McTavish10:59
xG 0.76–0.54 (59%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Jones – Groulx5:59
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Carrick – Johnston – Leason4:43
xG 0.00–0.15 (3%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Zegras7:07
xG 0.16–0.39 (29%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Drysdale13:58
xG 0.68–0.31 (69%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Gudas – LaCombe11:20
xG 0.90–0.74 (55%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov10:06
xG 0.10–0.63 (13%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Barbashev – Eichel8:00
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Cotter7:55
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Amadio – Dorofeyev7:55
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Kolesar – Roy – Rondbjerg7:43
xG 0.01–0.41 (3%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Pachal5:07
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Hutton – Korczak2:48
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hague – Pachal8:33
xG 0.19–0.23 (46%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).