Sat, Oct 14, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Los Angeles Kings 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 39 | 26 | 03 | 01 | 3 | 619 |
| LAK | 115 | 26 | 27 | 02 | 2 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15CARBrent BurnsAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 6:41CARSebastian AhoSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 13:28CARJesperi KotkaniemiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P1 18:27LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Kevin Fiala, Mikey Anderson · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 3:03CARBrendan LemieuxAssists: Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 5:20LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Adrian Kempe, Kevin Fiala · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 10:23CARTeuvo TeravainenSHAssists: Sebastian Aho, Brady Skjei · Slap, 0.13 xG5–2
- P2 13:46LAKTrevor MoorePPUnassisted · Slap, 0.13 xG5–3
- P3 11:24LAKVladislav GavrikovAssists: Trevor Lewis, Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–4
- P3 18:38LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Carl Grundstrom, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.28 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. LAK Adrian Kempe stopped
- 2. CAR Brent Burns stopped
- 3. LAK Pierre-Luc Dubois scored
- 4. CAR Teuvo Teravainen stopped
- 5. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
- 6. CAR Sebastian Aho scored
- 7. LAK Kevin Fiala stopped
- 8. CAR Seth Jarvis stopped
- 9. LAK Trevor Moore scored
- 10. CAR Martin Necas scored
- 11. LAK Quinton Byfield stopped
- 12. CAR Tony DeAngelo stopped
- 13. LAK Carl Grundstrom stopped
- 14. CAR Michael Bunting stopped
- 15. LAK Phillip Danault stopped
- 16. CAR Brady Skjei stopped
- 17. LAK Alex Laferriere stopped
- 18. CAR Jordan Martinook scored
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:14LAKAnze Kopitar: Holding2 min
- P1 5:48CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:43CARJaccob Slavin: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:26CARDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:52LAKMatt Roy: Interference2 min
- P2 9:42CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:41CARJesper Fast: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:23LAKMatt Roy: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:31LAKMikey Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:50CARSebastian Aho: Holding2 min
- P3 5:50LAKMatt Roy: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:42CARSeth Jarvis: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:26CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Lemieux – Drury5:42
xG 0.50–0.13 (80%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook9:28
xG 0.17–0.35 (32%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Bunting – Aho – Jarvis9:52
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi9:10
xG 0.21–0.55 (28%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – DeAngelo9:25
xG 0.40–0.26 (60%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pesce12:59
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin14:01
xG 0.36–0.78 (32%)attempts 9–17goals 2–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Dubois – Laferriere8:05
xG 0.34–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Danault – Grundstrom – Moore9:03
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield11:22
xG 0.34–0.37 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Lewis – Anderson-Dolan – Lizotte5:55
xG 0.19–0.53 (27%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson11:12
xG 0.74–0.21 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Doughty – Englund2:41
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Englund – Roy2:53
xG 0.05–0.01 (80%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).