Sun, Oct 15, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Anaheim Ducks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 112 | 215 | 335 |
| ANA | 311 | 16 | 28 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:52ANASam CarrickAssists: Brett Leason · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 8:31ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Jamie Drysdale, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 12:06ANAPavel MintyukovAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 13:52CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 16:44ANAFrank VatranoGWGAssists: Ryan Strome, Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 3:01CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Brent Burns, Dmitry Orlov · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 15:29CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Michael Bunting, Tony DeAngelo · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 18:03ANACam FowlerENAssists: Troy Terry, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–5
- P3 18:41ANAFrank VatranoENAssists: Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 10:57CARMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:57ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:56ANAMason McTavish: Interference2 min
- P1 17:15CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:04ANATroy Terry: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 3:54CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:37ANAIlya Lyubushkin: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00CARStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00CARBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00ANARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00ANARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00CARBrendan Lemieux: Misconduct10 min
- P2 0:00ANARadko Gudas: Misconduct10 min
- P3 1:07ANARyan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:53ANATrevor Zegras: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Groulx won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook10:36
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 24–4goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Necas5:37
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Teravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi3:26
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Bunting – Aho – Jarvis4:26
xG 0.10–0.28 (27%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin15:07
xG 0.77–0.61 (56%)attempts 29–10goals 0–1
- Orlov – DeAngelo8:06
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 11–6goals 0–2
- Skjei – Pesce15:42
xG 0.36–1.31 (21%)attempts 21–19goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – McTavish11:30
xG 0.95–0.26 (79%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Henrique – Terry – Zegras7:07
xG 0.12–0.12 (51%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Jones – Groulx7:57
xG 0.19–0.23 (46%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Carrick – Johnston – Leason4:48
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Mintyukov12:00
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Fowler – Drysdale13:49
xG 0.47–0.69 (41%)attempts 11–25goals 2–1
- Gudas – LaCombe8:37
xG 0.06–0.45 (12%)attempts 2–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).