Mon, Oct 16, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Florida Panthers 4, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 211 | 112 | 17 | 430 |
| NJD | 08 | 012 | 314 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:54FLASam ReinhartAssists: Evan Rodrigues · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 13:12FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Josh Mahura · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 11:18FLANiko MikkolaAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–0
- P3 0:59FLASam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–0
- P3 3:35NJDErik HaulaPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 8:51NJDMichael McLeodAssists: Erik Haula, Alexander Holtz · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 17:37NJDJesper BrattPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 15:18NJDErik Haula: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:48FLAEvan Rodrigues: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:52FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:52FLANiko Mikkola: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:30NJDTimo Meier: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:48NJDTimo Meier: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:17FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:17NJDNico Hischier: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:17NJDOndrej Palat: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:50FLANiko Mikkola: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:56FLANick Cousins: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Luostarinen won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Tkachuk – Luostarinen10:53
xG 0.64–0.54 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 2–1
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues9:57
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Cousins – Sourdif – Lundell8:46
xG 0.08–0.07 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Lorentz – Lomberg5:17
xG 0.17–0.25 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMahura – Balinskis8:50
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola13:01
xG 0.51–0.56 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Forsling14:49
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 6–23goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – McLeod – Holtz3:12
xG 0.14–0.03 (84%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Lazar – Bastian – McLeod5:06
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Palat – Hischier – Mercer7:16
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Bratt – Hughes10:45
xG 0.61–0.57 (52%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Bahl2:40
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Smith – Siegenthaler2:25
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Marino – Bahl7:22
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).