Mon, Oct 16, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 09 | 313 | 19 | 431 |
| TOR | 07 | 112 | 017 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:59CHIMacKenzie EntwistleAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Boris Katchouk · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 5:14TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 14:46CHICorey PerryGWGAssists: Alex Vlasic, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 17:05CHITyler JohnsonPPAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Kevin Korchinski · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 19:54CHITaylor RaddyshENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.43 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:48CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:23TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:38CHIConnor Murphy: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:38TORNoah Gregor: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:13TORTyler Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:22TORTyler Bertuzzi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:11TORJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:52CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:46CHIJason Dickinson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHall – Donato – Bedard13:12
xG 0.66–0.44 (60%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Katchouk – Entwistle5:09
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Perry – Foligno – Dickinson9:51
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 5–16goals 1–1
- Johnson – Raddysh – Reichel6:48
xG 0.52–0.60 (46%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Vlasic15:57
xG 0.97–0.65 (60%)attempts 22–21goals 2–0
- Jones – Kaiser2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Zaitsev – Korchinski2:07
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Jarnkrok – Nylander7:28
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Domi – Knies – Minten5:54
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Marner – Matthews12:53
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Reaves – Gregor – Kampf4:46
xG 0.11–0.37 (23%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Liljegren7:17
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly13:14
xG 0.43–0.18 (70%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Giordano – Klingberg2:51
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).