Mon, Oct 16, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Calgary Flames 2, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 218 | 013 | 08 | 01 | 0 | 240 |
| WSH | 03 | 29 | 010 | 01 | 1 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:47CGYAdam RuzickaAssists: Noah Hanifin, Dillon Dube · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 17:12CGYDillon DubePPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Adam Ruzicka · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 6:50WSHMatthew PhillipsAssists: Sonny Milano · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 9:54WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Matthew Phillips, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 2. CGY Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 3. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 4. CGY Yegor Sharangovich stopped
- 5. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 6. CGY Nazem Kadri stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:33WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Interference2 min
- P1 15:18WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:28CGYNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:38WSHAliaksei Protas: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:07CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:56WSHAlexander Alexeyev: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 11:41WSHT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
- P3 16:26WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:25CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Lindholm – Mangiapane8:36
xG 0.70–0.18 (79%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato12:59
xG 0.79–0.32 (71%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Greer – Sharangovich – Duehr7:34
xG 0.44–0.07 (85%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Kadri – Dube – Ruzicka8:37
xG 0.45–0.49 (48%)attempts 12–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Zadorov15:14
xG 0.85–0.51 (63%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Tanev – Weegar2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson14:36
xG 0.63–0.69 (47%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMilano – Strome – Phillips9:13
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Dowd – Malenstyn – Protas5:03
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – McMichael9:16
xG 0.29–0.53 (36%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:55
xG 0.15–0.71 (18%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin15:58
xG 0.72–0.56 (56%)attempts 19–19goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin3:35
xG 0.09–0.01 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Jensen – Alexeyev8:40
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 4–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).