Tue, Oct 17, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Vancouver Canucks 0, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 011 | 03 | 012 | 026 |
| PHI | 210 | 022 | 010 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:45PHIEgor ZamulaGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 17:23PHISean CouturierUnassisted · Snap, 0.35 xG0–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:51PHIGarnet Hathaway: Holding2 min
- P1 17:23VANNoah Juulsen: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 10:04VANTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:54VANPius Suter: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:07VANTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:16VANNoah Juulsen: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:16PHIMarc Staal: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:56VANSam Lafferty: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:56PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:56VANSam Lafferty: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:56PHITravis Konecny: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:48VANIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:49PHIJoel Farabee: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:50PHIScott Laughton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Lafferty
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Beauvillier – Suter4:52
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser8:10
xG 0.33–0.36 (47%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Studnicka – Hoglander3:39
xG 0.01–0.45 (3%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Garland – Pettersson – Kuzmenko5:55
xG 0.30–0.96 (24%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Cole – Soucy2:59
xG 0.06–0.20 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Soucy – Juulsen5:58
xG 0.17–0.74 (18%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Hronek – Hughes14:00
xG 0.43–1.15 (27%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Couturier – Tippett9:52
xG 1.66–0.26 (86%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Cates – Farabee – Brink7:07
xG 0.75–0.14 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Poehling7:35
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Laughton – Konecny – Foerster6:42
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Walker11:35
xG 1.29–0.34 (79%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York13:35
xG 1.07–0.46 (70%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Seeler – Zamula11:54
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).