Tue, Oct 17, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Edmonton Oilers 6, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 411 | 214 | 05 | 630 |
| NSH | 015 | 119 | 010 | 144 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:11EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 13:38EDMZach HymanGWGAssists: Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–0
- P1 16:45EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Warren Foegele, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P1 17:46EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–0
- P2 2:08NSHTommy NovakPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P2 7:53EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.06 xG5–1
- P2 15:27EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.13 xG6–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:17NSHRoman Josi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:23EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:06NSHCole Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:06EDMAdam Erne: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:59EDMConnor McDavid: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:23EDMCody Ceci: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:25NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:24NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele8:55
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Brown – McLeod – Holloway9:19
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Janmark – Erne – Ryan7:58
xG 0.31–0.39 (44%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – McDavid12:21
xG 0.41–1.00 (29%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard12:38
xG 0.89–0.46 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Ceci – Nurse17:55
xG 0.31–0.59 (34%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Kulak – Broberg9:57
xG 0.24–0.69 (26%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Forsberg – Parssinen9:59
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Glass – Tomasino7:22
xG 0.24–0.22 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Novak – Evangelista2:49
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista4:58
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Fabbro2:57
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro13:10
xG 0.44–0.35 (56%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Carrier13:38
xG 0.93–0.94 (50%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).