Tue, Oct 17, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Los Angeles Kings 5, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 212 | 38 | 529 |
| WPG | 014 | 04 | 19 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:01LAKPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Anze Kopitar, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 16:19LAKTrevor MooreGWGAssists: Phillip Danault, Arthur Kaliyev · Snap, 0.30 xG2–0
- P3 2:51LAKArthur KaliyevAssists: Trevor Moore, Phillip Danault · Snap, 0.30 xG3–0
- P3 14:31LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Mikey Anderson · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–0
- P3 16:32LAKPhillip DanaultPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–0
- P3 18:44WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 0:24WPGDylan Samberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 5:55LAKBlake Lizotte: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:12LAKCam Talbot: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:56WPGMorgan Barron: Interference2 min
- P2 11:36LAKTrevor Moore: Holding2 min
- P2 13:59WPGDylan Samberg: Instigator2 min
- P2 13:59WPGDylan Samberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:59LAKAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:59WPGDylan Samberg: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 16:05LAKMatt Roy: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:05WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:05WPGCole Perfetti: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:05LAKVladislav Gavrikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:31LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:25WPGMorgan Barron: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:44WPGNino Niederreiter: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Kupari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Moore – Kaliyev8:52
xG 1.18–0.32 (79%)attempts 12–10goals 3–0
- Fiala – Dubois – Laferriere11:13
xG 0.68–0.46 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Kopitar – Grundstrom – Byfield2:10
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield9:06
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Roy9:11
xG 1.30–0.16 (89%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Spence5:29
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Doughty – Spence2:05
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Ehlers – Barron – Kupari2:34
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Lowry – Appleton – Iafallo8:29
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Namestnikov – Connor9:50
xG 0.44–0.70 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Lowry – Appleton – Barron2:04
xG 0.29–0.62 (32%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Morrissey2:36
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey3:52
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey10:37
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).