Tue, Oct 17, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Colorado Avalanche 4, Seattle Kraken 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 25 | 214 | 428 |
| SEA | 116 | 014 | 08 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:09SEAKailer YamamotoAssists: Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 3:50COLArtturi LehkonenUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 11:50COLLogan O'ConnorSHGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 13:45COLMikko RantanenAssists: Samuel Girard, Andrew Cogliano · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 16:46COLValeri NichushkinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:20COLLogan O'Connor: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:20SEAJordan Eberle: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:47COLRoss Colton: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:30SEAJustin Schultz: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:13COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:26COLNathan MacKinnon: Interference2 min
- P2 13:14SEAJamie Oleksiak: Holding2 min
- P3 2:47COLAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:25SEAJared McCann: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:25COLBowen Byram: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen9:11
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Johansen – Lehkonen – Drouin3:58
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Tatar – Wood – Colton3:30
xG 0.01–0.26 (3%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Olofsson – O'Connor4:17
xG 0.02–0.32 (7%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Manson10:48
xG 0.66–0.57 (54%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Manson – Girard2:18
xG 0.01–0.04 (16%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar10:30
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestBellemare – Yamamoto – Kartye2:23
xG 0.33–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Gourde – Burakovsky – Tolvanen9:16
xG 0.65–0.36 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Schwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg8:44
xG 0.17–0.29 (38%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers8:08
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn17:57
xG 1.23–0.40 (75%)attempts 25–18goals 1–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin10:45
xG 0.33–0.22 (61%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen9:22
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).