Thu, Oct 19, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Edmonton Oilers 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 07 | 112 | 04 | 123 |
| PHI | 19 | 27 | 116 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:50PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Bobby Brink, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.32 xG0–1
- P2 3:54PHICam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Owen Tippett · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 15:23EDMZach HymanAssists: Cody Ceci, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 18:29PHISean WalkerSHAssists: Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 4:17PHICam AtkinsonAssists: Owen Tippett, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:22EDMMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:22PHICam York: Holding2 min
- P2 12:57EDMMattias Ekholm: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:29PHICam Atkinson: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:49EDMDarnell Nurse: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:22EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBrown – McLeod – Holloway9:20
xG 0.40–0.06 (88%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Janmark – Erne – Ryan7:34
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele7:00
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – McDavid8:19
xG 0.44–0.38 (53%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse14:31
xG 0.90–0.68 (57%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Kulak – Desharnais10:55
xG 0.20–0.55 (26%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard14:37
xG 0.62–1.38 (31%)attempts 16–12goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Couturier – Tippett10:16
xG 1.03–0.45 (69%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Cates – Farabee – Brink10:02
xG 0.56–0.41 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Poehling8:18
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Laughton – Konecny – Foerster10:12
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York17:12
xG 1.72–1.03 (63%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Seeler – Walker6:57
xG 0.23–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Walker – York2:25
xG 0.07–0.02 (82%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).