Thu, Oct 19, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Los Angeles Kings 7, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 47 | 011 | 39 | 727 |
| MIN | 28 | 014 | 110 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39LAKCarl GrundstromAssists: Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 6:21MINConnor DewarAssists: Jon Merrill, Dakota Mermis · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 8:00MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Jonas Brodin, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 15:46LAKVladislav GavrikovAssists: Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P1 19:02LAKPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Kevin Fiala · Deflected, 0.02 xG3–2
- P1 19:14LAKPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 10:13LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Arthur Kaliyev, Andreas Englund · Snap, 0.21 xG5–2
- P3 14:38MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Marcus Johansson, Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.12 xG5–3
- P3 17:41LAKAdrian KempeENAssists: Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.46 xG6–3
- P3 18:52LAKBlake LizotteENAssists: Mikey Anderson · Wrist, 0.37 xG7–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:00LAKArthur Kaliyev: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 16:16LAKQuinton Byfield: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:19LAKAdrian Kempe: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:08LAKArthur Kaliyev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Grundstrom – Lizotte7:54
xG 0.27–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Danault – Moore – Kaliyev12:34
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield12:31
xG 0.32–0.44 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Fiala – Dubois – Laferriere12:58
xG 0.56–0.87 (39%)attempts 11–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Doughty – Englund2:23
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Roy14:22
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 3–1
- Doughty – Anderson17:16
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Walker11:54
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Maroon – Duhaime – Dewar8:45
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 1–2
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov13:01
xG 0.52–0.76 (41%)attempts 13–15goals 1–2
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Rossi11:11
xG 0.12–0.37 (25%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Mermis12:47
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Brodin – Addison14:04
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Brodin – Faber3:56
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).