Thu, Oct 19, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 110 | 28 | 29 | 527 |
| WPG | 112 | 17 | 120 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30WPGAlex IafalloAssists: Josh Morrissey, Nino Niederreiter · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 17:42VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Shea Theodore · Slap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 0:49VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 15:27VGKAlec MartinezAssists: William Karlsson, Paul Cotter · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 16:00WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Nikolaj Ehlers · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 11:32WPGAlex IafalloPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.22 xG3–3
- P3 15:24VGKJack EichelPPGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 18:57VGKNicolas RoyENAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.61 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:42WPGLogan Stanley: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:07VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
- P3 11:14VGKIvan Barbashev: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:16WPGAlex Iafallo: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Stone – Stephenson – Cotter4:58
xG 0.26–0.25 (52%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Amadio – Howden4:02
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Amadio – Cotter7:57
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy9:49
xG 0.23–0.46 (34%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore20:28
xG 0.83–0.66 (56%)attempts 25–17goals 1–0
- Martinez – Hague17:44
xG 0.29–0.96 (23%)attempts 13–28goals 1–1
- Hutton – Pachal13:52
xG 0.25–1.03 (20%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Iafallo10:24
xG 0.91–0.27 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti9:45
xG 0.77–0.17 (82%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Barron – Kupari – Gustafsson7:07
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Appleton13:59
xG 0.52–0.68 (43%)attempts 15–22goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk5:05
xG 0.81–0.01 (99%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:58
xG 0.90–0.60 (60%)attempts 21–18goals 2–1
- Stanley – Samberg8:35
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).