Thu, Oct 19, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Seattle Kraken 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 121 | 09 | 36 | 436 |
| SEA | 314 | 110 | 312 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:16SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Eeli Tolvanen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 7:35CARJesper FastAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Jordan Staal · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 12:18SEAJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Vince Dunn · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 19:22SEAPierre-Edouard BellemareSHAssists: Vince Dunn · Snap, 0.34 xG1–3
- P2 2:38SEAVince DunnPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Slap, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 1:08CARSeth JarvisAssists: Stefan Noesen, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 5:54CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Stefan Noesen, Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.25 xG3–4
- P3 11:52SEAJared McCannGWGAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.16 xG3–5
- P3 12:13SEATye KartyeAssists: Matty Beniers, Will Borgen · Snap, 0.31 xG3–6
- P3 15:56CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Jordan Staal, Martin Necas · Slap, 0.35 xG4–6
- P3 16:51SEAOliver BjorkstrandENAssists: Will Borgen · Wrist, 0.41 xG4–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:12CARStefan Noesen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:43SEAAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
- P2 2:08CARTeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:19CARJalen Chatfield: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:39CARBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:19SEATye Kartye: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:19SEATye Kartye: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:19CARBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis11:24
xG 0.80–0.51 (61%)attempts 19–12goals 2–1
- Staal – Fast – Martinook10:41
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Bunting – Necas10:04
xG 0.42–0.50 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
- Lemieux – Necas – Drury2:48
xG 0.00–0.20 (1%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce16:00
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Orlov – DeAngelo7:56
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Burns – Slavin15:30
xG 0.80–0.81 (50%)attempts 21–19goals 3–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Kartye – Beniers2:16
xG 0.52–0.22 (71%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg7:37
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Bellemare – Yamamoto – Kartye5:35
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Wennberg – McCann4:03
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 6–2goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen14:13
xG 0.90–0.40 (69%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
- Oleksiak – Dunn2:23
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn16:10
xG 0.62–0.88 (41%)attempts 17–19goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).