Thu, Oct 19, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 08 | 07 | 03 | 018 |
| COL | 222 | 111 | 18 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:46COLLogan O'ConnorSHGWGAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 18:41COLRyan JohansenPPAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Mikko Rantanen · Bat, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 13:18COLDevon ToewsAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Tomas Tatar · Snap, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 8:40COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Tomas Tatar, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:41COLBowen Byram: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:35CHITyler Johnson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:45CHITaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:03COLBowen Byram: Holding2 min
- P2 18:19CHINikita Zaitsev: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:29COLRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:28COLMiles Wood: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Foligno – Dickinson7:16
xG 0.65–0.11 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Raddysh – Reichel6:17
xG 0.31–0.19 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Bedard2:35
xG 0.08–0.03 (72%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Donato – Entwistle2:52
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Korchinski12:18
xG 0.94–0.60 (61%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Zaitsev – Korchinski2:05
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
- Zaitsev – Kaiser12:51
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Lehkonen – Nichushkin10:08
xG 0.32–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – MacKinnon – Rantanen6:25
xG 0.49–0.25 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Olofsson – O'Connor7:41
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Wood – Drouin – Colton4:41
xG 0.18–0.10 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Manson11:04
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Girard – Byram15:01
xG 0.44–0.03 (93%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar14:37
xG 0.75–1.10 (41%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).