Thu, Oct 19, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Boston Bruins 3, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 217 | 17 | 012 | 336 |
| SJS | 010 | 07 | 110 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:06BOSBrad MarchandAssists: John Beecher · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 18:27BOSJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Trent Frederic, Charlie Coyle · Poke, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 16:46BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 11:13SJSAnthony DuclairAssists: Tomas Hertl · Backhand, 0.03 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:25SJSKyle Burroughs: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:01BOSJake DeBrusk: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:58BOSCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:23BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Sturm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Coyle – Frederic10:21
xG 1.44–0.18 (89%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – DeBrusk10:01
xG 0.61–0.19 (77%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Marchand – Pastrnak – Zacha2:06
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Lucic – Lauko – Beecher7:42
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy12:07
xG 1.57–0.23 (87%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Carlo13:22
xG 0.89–0.21 (81%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Forbort11:24
xG 0.38–0.23 (63%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Duclair – Barabanov11:49
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Zetterlund – Sturm – Eklund2:21
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Smith – Zetterlund – Sturm5:00
xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Labanc – Zadina – Bordeleau6:46
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Knyzhov2:53
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Rutta – Knyzhov14:52
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Ferraro14:32
xG 0.46–0.64 (42%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).