Fri, Oct 20, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
New Jersey Devils 5, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 113 | 215 | 19 | 12 | 539 |
| NYI | 18 | 210 | 113 | 01 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:35NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Pierre Engvall, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 19:00NJDDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Timo Meier, Akira Schmid · Slap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 0:21NJDTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 1:37NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 2:36NJDLuke HughesPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 6:10NYIBo HorvatAssists: Noah Dobson, Matt Martin · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 4:30NJDJack HughesPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Jesper Bratt · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 18:49NYIBo HorvatAssists: Anders Lee, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–4
- OT 2:19NJDJack HughesGWGAssists: John Marino, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:37NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:29NYICasey Cizikas: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:40NYIAdam Pelech: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:45NYICasey Cizikas: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:51NYIAdam Pelech: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 8:57NYIMatt Martin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:57NJDTimo Meier: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:02NYIPierre Engvall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:32NJDMichael McLeod: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hischier7:02
xG 0.52–0.07 (88%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Meier – Hughes11:51
xG 0.60–0.41 (60%)attempts 19–10goals 0–2
- Lazar – Bastian – McLeod3:07
xG 0.19–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McLeod – Mercer – Holtz2:15
xG 0.16–0.00 (99%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler15:42
xG 0.78–0.47 (62%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- Marino – Bahl16:05
xG 0.75–0.60 (56%)attempts 22–12goals 0–1
- Smith – Hughes11:25
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Engvall10:52
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal6:06
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:23
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Pageau – Fasching – Holmstrom3:37
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pelech – Pulock2:15
xG 0.05–0.01 (87%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov2:49
xG 0.04–0.01 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Pulock – Romanov16:03
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).