Sat, Oct 21, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 19 | 16 | 39 | 524 |
| CHI | 16 | 18 | 110 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30CHIConnor BedardPPAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 4:05VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Paul Cotter, Kaedan Korczak · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 7:30VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Jack Eichel, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 8:50CHIReese JohnsonAssists: Connor Murphy, Ryan Donato · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 0:13VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Brayden McNabb · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 13:47VGKMark StoneGWGAssists: Michael Amadio, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–2
- P3 16:09VGKPaul CotterPPAssists: Michael Amadio, Alec Martinez · Snap, 0.23 xG5–2
- P3 19:45CHICorey PerryAssists: Nick Foligno, Kevin Korchinski · Slap, 0.11 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:25VGKKeegan Kolesar: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 2:13CHILukas Reichel: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:14CHITaylor Raddysh: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:09CHIJason Dickinson: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:40VGKWilliam Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:51CHITaylor Raddysh: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:35VGKPaul Cotter: Interference2 min
- P3 8:41VGKMark Stone: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:32VGKNicolas Hague: Interference2 min
- P3 14:32CHIReese Johnson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bedard won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Roy6:24
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 1–2
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel8:00
xG 0.58–0.43 (58%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Howden2:37
xG 0.06–0.05 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Amadio – Cotter7:05
xG 0.06–0.06 (49%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore14:12
xG 1.07–0.44 (71%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Hague – Korczak11:00
xG 0.69–0.19 (79%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Martinez – Pachal12:51
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Donato – Katchouk – Johnson6:21
xG 0.10–0.07 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Hall – Raddysh – Bedard7:49
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Perry – Foligno – Dickinson7:29
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Athanasiou – Reichel10:07
xG 0.21–0.63 (25%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Tinordi – Kaiser10:03
xG 0.05–0.21 (20%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Jones – Korchinski13:12
xG 0.37–0.58 (39%)attempts 14–8goals 0–2
- Murphy – Vlasic10:21
xG 0.34–0.76 (31%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).