Sat, Oct 21, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 122 | 217 | 14 | 554 |
| MIN | 010 | 26 | 210 | 02 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:55CBJJustin DanforthAssists: David Jiricek, Mathieu Olivier · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 6:10CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Cole Sillinger · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 7:21MINDakota MermisAssists: Marcus Johansson, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 8:15MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Ryan Hartman · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 4:42MINJonas BrodinAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 7:36CBJBoone JennerAssists: Zach Werenski, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 14:41CBJAdam FantilliPPAssists: Ivan Provorov, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 17:01MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Patrick Maroon, Dakota Mermis · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 3:07CBJJack RoslovicGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:06CBJDavid Jiricek: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:01MINCalen Addison: Holding2 min
- P2 10:18MINPatrick Maroon: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:06CBJDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:02CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:05MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestRoslovic – Texier – Fantilli10:39
xG 1.23–0.46 (73%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Marchenko12:21
xG 1.08–0.39 (73%)attempts 25–13goals 1–1
- Kuraly – Olivier – Danforth8:45
xG 0.61–0.12 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Bemstrom – Johnson – Sillinger7:35
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski16:36
xG 1.30–0.38 (77%)attempts 28–14goals 2–0
- Provorov – Jiricek10:52
xG 0.84–0.46 (65%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Gudbranson – Bean12:16
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Duhaime – Walker – Dewar5:47
xG 0.06–0.28 (18%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Rossi10:16
xG 0.40–0.72 (35%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Maroon – Johansson – Eriksson Ek11:45
xG 0.40–0.75 (35%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov11:00
xG 0.34–1.01 (25%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Addison12:56
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Merrill – Mermis10:35
xG 0.54–1.37 (28%)attempts 16–18goals 2–1
- Middleton – Faber18:54
xG 0.29–1.26 (19%)attempts 14–35goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).