Sat, Oct 21, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 012 | 110 | 233 |
| STL | 18 | 29 | 14 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:33STLBrandon SaadAssists: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 19:55PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 5:39STLJake NeighboursAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 7:12STLColton ParaykoGWGAssists: Alexey Toropchenko, Oskar Sundqvist · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 15:13STLBrandon SaadAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 16:27PITRadim ZohornaAssists: Lars Eller, Drew O'Connor · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:48PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:18STLAlexey Toropchenko: Interference2 min
- P3 0:28PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:44STLColton Parayko: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – O'Connor – Zohorna8:20
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Malkin – Smith – Rakell10:33
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Carter – Nieto – Acciari7:12
xG 0.16–0.37 (31%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel13:10
xG 0.79–1.17 (40%)attempts 21–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson14:59
xG 1.01–0.41 (71%)attempts 25–10goals 1–1
- Ruhwedel – Shea7:24
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Ruhwedel – Graves2:39
xG 0.03–0.09 (23%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Kyrou – Thomas11:04
xG 1.06–0.65 (62%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kapanen – Neighbours9:39
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Toropchenko – Alexandrov6:12
xG 0.10–0.24 (30%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Hayes – Vrana – Blais9:42
xG 0.09–0.66 (13%)attempts 2–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko17:55
xG 0.94–0.59 (61%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug16:26
xG 0.60–0.73 (45%)attempts 11–29goals 1–0
- Scandella – Tucker11:09
xG 0.07–0.91 (7%)attempts 3–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).