Sun, Oct 22, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Boston Bruins 3, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 013 | 04 | 39 | 326 |
| ANA | 08 | 010 | 113 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 5:05ANAMason McTavishAssists: Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 6:29BOSMatthew PoitrasAssists: Morgan Geekie, Ian Mitchell · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 10:20BOSMatthew PoitrasGWGAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Charlie McAvoy · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 17:26BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:29BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P1 2:19ANABrett Leason: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:20ANARadko Gudas: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:49ANARadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P2 3:41BOSIan Mitchell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:10ANAMax Jones: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:10BOSCharlie Coyle: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 12:57BOSIan Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:25ANATroy Terry: Interference2 min
- P3 18:59ANATrevor Zegras: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Carrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestDeBrusk – Geekie – Poitras10:21
xG 0.79–0.13 (86%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Coyle – Frederic5:02
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Lauko – Beecher4:36
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Marchand – Pastrnak – Zacha6:04
xG 0.20–0.75 (21%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy3:29
xG 0.44–0.08 (85%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo2:48
xG 0.05–0.03 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo11:02
xG 0.36–0.37 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – McTavish10:25
xG 0.89–0.21 (81%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Jones – Groulx6:35
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Zegras9:44
xG 0.48–0.50 (49%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Carrick – Johnston – Leason3:39
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Mintyukov10:44
xG 0.79–0.20 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Fowler – LaCombe10:18
xG 0.68–0.57 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Gudas – Vaakanainen12:02
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).