Tue, Oct 24, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 4, Minnesota Wild 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 211 | 19 | 18 | 428 |
| MIN | 28 | 013 | 511 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:54EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Evander Kane, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 7:47MINMarco RossiAssists: Ryan Hartman, Jake Middleton · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 18:27EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm · Slap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 19:01MINRyan HartmanAssists: Jake Middleton, Calen Addison · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 0:32EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Darnell Nurse, Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 0:38MINRyan HartmanAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Snap, 0.23 xG3–3
- P3 6:48MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 10:28MINJoel Eriksson EkGWGAssists: Patrick Maroon, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–5
- P3 12:55EDMEvander KanePPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 15:50MINRyan HartmanAssists: Jake Middleton, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–6
- P3 16:37MINMarcus FolignoENAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–7
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:39MINJon Merrill: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:25MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:19EDMDylan Holloway: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:22MINRyan Hartman: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:46MINMarco Rossi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:56MINBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:56EDMEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:03EDMDylan Holloway: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:45MINDakota Mermis: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:21MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:21EDMVincent Desharnais: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:45EDMWarren Foegele: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – Janmark – Draisaitl7:59
xG 0.83–0.26 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Brown – McLeod – Holloway6:08
xG 0.47–0.06 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele8:28
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 2–2
- Janmark – Erne – Ryan2:30
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Desharnais9:14
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Broberg3:23
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard7:56
xG 0.67–0.54 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 2–3
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:20
xG 1.15–0.22 (84%)attempts 18–7goals 3–1
- Duhaime – Lettieri – Dewar4:14
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Rossi7:49
xG 0.04–0.32 (12%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Maroon – Johansson – Eriksson Ek11:38
xG 0.29–0.67 (30%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Addison12:06
xG 1.23–0.35 (78%)attempts 13–14goals 3–2
- Merrill – Mermis11:26
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Brodin – Faber17:19
xG 0.73–1.33 (35%)attempts 10–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).