Wed, Oct 25, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Washington Capitals 6, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 38 | 07 | 310 | 625 |
| NJD | 02 | 414 | 06 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:37WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Aliaksei Protas · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 15:52WSHDylan StromeAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 17:28WSHSonny MilanoAssists: T.J. Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 4:31NJDTyler ToffoliAssists: Timo Meier, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 5:19NJDTimo MeierAssists: Jack Hughes, Tyler Toffoli · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–2
- P2 6:42NJDNico HischierAssists: Jesper Bratt, John Marino · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P2 10:01NJDTyler ToffoliAssists: Luke Hughes, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 0:18WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Snap, 0.25 xG4–4
- P3 2:09WSHConnor McMichaelGWGAssists: Anthony Mantha, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.09 xG5–4
- P3 18:25WSHAlex OvechkinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG6–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 10:26NJDNathan Bastian: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:28WSHSonny Milano: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:48NJDNico Hischier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:32NJDDawson Mercer: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Wilson – Strome12:04
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Backstrom – Mantha – McMichael5:06
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Milano11:20
xG 0.59–0.58 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Backstrom – Phillips – McMichael4:47
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Sandin10:24
xG 0.55–0.24 (70%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Jensen – Alexeyev5:58
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 2–0
- Carlson – Sandin2:08
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Mercer – Holtz6:44
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Meier – Hughes13:32
xG 0.79–0.68 (54%)attempts 21–12goals 3–1
- Palat – Bratt – Hischier11:18
xG 0.56–0.62 (48%)attempts 13–8goals 1–2
- Lazar – Bastian – McLeod8:42
xG 0.02–0.26 (8%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Hughes12:58
xG 0.97–0.18 (84%)attempts 20–8goals 2–1
- Smith – Siegenthaler3:37
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Hughes6:33
xG 0.38–0.42 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).