Thu, Oct 26, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Anaheim Ducks 4, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 08 | 213 | 12 | 432 |
| BOS | 06 | 313 | 011 | 00 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:00ANARadko GudasAssists: Urho Vaakanainen, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 1:41BOSCharlie CoylePPAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 3:01BOSMatt GrzelcykAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Matthew Poitras · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 16:40BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Pavel Zacha, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 18:05ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Troy Terry, Sam Carrick · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 19:45ANATroy TerryAssists: Pavel Mintyukov, Ryan Strome · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 2:08ANAMason McTavishGWGAssists: Leo Carlsson, Jackson LaCombe · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:33BOSBrandon Carlo: Holding2 min
- P1 15:00BOSJames van Riemsdyk: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 0:49ANAJackson LaCombe: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:43ANAFrank Vatrano: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:43BOSCharlie Coyle: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:00BOSDerek Forbort: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:27ANARadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P3 5:14BOSHampus Lindholm: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:37ANAFrank Vatrano: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:01BOSPatrick Brown: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Silfverberg – Jones5:53
xG 0.27–0.12 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Terry – Zegras – Carlsson10:40
xG 0.50–0.51 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Carrick – Johnston – Leason6:11
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish8:35
xG 0.11–0.48 (19%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Vaakanainen10:18
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov8:40
xG 0.30–0.59 (34%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Fowler – LaCombe16:36
xG 0.43–0.79 (35%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Pastrnak – Zacha7:10
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Coyle – DeBrusk – Frederic2:27
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Coyle – Frederic5:58
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Pastrnak – Poitras2:56
xG 0.21–0.06 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Lindholm5:19
xG 0.39–0.04 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy2:31
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo9:11
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).