Thu, Oct 26, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Seattle Kraken 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 28 | 07 | 08 | 03 | 226 |
| CAR | 115 | 016 | 113 | 11 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:24SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jamie Oleksiak · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 14:52SEADevin ShoreAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 18:22CARMartin NecasAssists: Michael Bunting, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Snap, 0.33 xG2–1
- P3 15:36CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Martin Necas, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 4:50CARMartin NecasGWGAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (2)
- P2 12:28CARMichael Bunting: Holding2 min
- P2 15:27SEAWill Borgen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Jarvis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Shore – Bellemare – Yamamoto5:37
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Schwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg14:31
xG 0.41–0.59 (41%)attempts 9–25goals 1–0
- Eberle – Kartye – Beniers14:15
xG 0.71–0.94 (43%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
- Gourde – McCann – Tolvanen12:57
xG 0.16–0.48 (25%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Dumoulin14:04
xG 0.52–0.44 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Borgen16:41
xG 0.54–0.85 (39%)attempts 14–24goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn19:57
xG 0.39–1.16 (25%)attempts 8–38goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Jarvis14:50
xG 0.79–0.06 (93%)attempts 29–4goals 0–0
- Bunting – Necas – Kotkaniemi15:21
xG 0.87–0.62 (59%)attempts 21–12goals 2–1
- Staal – Fast – Martinook12:14
xG 0.70–0.45 (61%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Noesen – Lemieux – Drury5:22
xG 0.07–0.38 (16%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin18:12
xG 1.21–0.55 (69%)attempts 28–11goals 1–1
- Skjei – DeAngelo8:43
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Orlov – Chatfield4:34
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).