Thu, Oct 26, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Minnesota Wild 2, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 04 | 09 | 215 | 228 |
| PHI | 112 | 213 | 310 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:57PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Nick Seeler · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 7:28PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Travis Sanheim · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 9:52PHIBobby BrinkPPGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 3:05MINDakota MermisAssists: Patrick Maroon, Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 4:30MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Marcus Johansson, Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 6:34PHIOwen TippettAssists: Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 11:02PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Joel Farabee, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–5
- P3 14:46PHITravis SanheimAssists: Tyson Foerster, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:02MINPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:02PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:31PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:11MINVinni Lettieri: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:34MINJake Middleton: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:21PHISean Walker: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:36MINJon Merrill: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Johansson – Eriksson Ek7:54
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Lettieri – Rossi6:08
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Khaira – Duhaime – Dewar5:06
xG 0.04–0.12 (25%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Lettieri – Dewar2:11
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber18:26
xG 1.18–0.76 (61%)attempts 24–19goals 1–3
- Middleton – Addison15:04
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Merrill – Mermis14:29
xG 0.37–0.87 (30%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Konecny – Foerster8:27
xG 0.89–0.35 (72%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Cates – Farabee – Brink10:10
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Poehling9:13
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Couturier – Tippett8:13
xG 0.25–0.59 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Belpedio10:17
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Belpedio2:54
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Walker – Zamula12:56
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).