Thu, Oct 26, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Colorado Avalanche 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 05 | 013 | 013 | 031 |
| PIT | 29 | 18 | 112 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:40PITReilly SmithGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 16:51PITReilly SmithAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 6:00PITLars EllerAssists: Radim Zohorna · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 10:35PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:37COLNathan MacKinnon: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:47PITRyan Shea: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:59PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:25PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 7:05PITNoel Acciari: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:24COLRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Drouin – Colton6:51
xG 0.87–0.28 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Olofsson – O'Connor6:43
xG 0.24–0.08 (76%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Tatar – Johansen – Rantanen8:23
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin9:53
xG 0.37–0.46 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Byram12:29
xG 0.77–0.50 (60%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar12:31
xG 0.62–0.43 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Toews – Byram2:03
xG 0.07–0.01 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – O'Connor – Zohorna7:46
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Carter – Nieto – Acciari5:33
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Smith – Rakell9:45
xG 0.17–0.17 (49%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel11:36
xG 0.45–1.10 (29%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Shea3:30
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Ruhwedel – Shea5:49
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson12:09
xG 0.64–0.51 (55%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).