Thu, Oct 26, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
San Jose Sharks 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 07 | 09 | 023 |
| TBL | 313 | 212 | 16 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:41TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 6:03TBLMichael EyssimontAssists: Calvin de Haan, Nick Perbix · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 19:18TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 4:01TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Alex Barré-Boulet, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–4
- P2 7:29TBLNick PaulAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–5
- P3 5:44TBLLuke GlendeningAssists: Conor Sheary, Darren Raddysh · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:33SJSThomas Bordeleau: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:41SJSMatt Benning: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:45SJSJacob Peterson: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:46TBLMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:46SJSJan Rutta: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:38TBLWaltteri Merela: Interference2 min
- P2 17:44SJSKevin Labanc: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:31TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Hertl – Duclair3:55
xG 0.60–0.12 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hertl – Duclair – Zetterlund3:57
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kunin – Sturm – Eklund2:05
xG 0.10–0.04 (74%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hertl – Duclair – Labanc2:28
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmberson – Knyzhov9:21
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Ferraro – Rutta13:54
xG 0.23–0.99 (19%)attempts 9–19goals 0–2
- Benning – Burroughs16:01
xG 0.12–1.32 (8%)attempts 5–21goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Barré-Boulet9:15
xG 0.71–0.09 (89%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Jeannot – Merela10:20
xG 0.66–0.15 (82%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Glendening – Sheary – Eyssimont7:58
xG 0.45–0.09 (83%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Stamkos – Paul – Hagel11:29
xG 0.50–0.66 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Raddysh13:46
xG 1.14–0.19 (86%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Hedman – Cernak13:03
xG 0.98–0.21 (82%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Sergachev – Perbix14:17
xG 0.58–0.29 (67%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).