Thu, Oct 26, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 3, Calgary Flames 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 210 | 010 | 115 | 335 |
| CGY | 010 | 04 | 013 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:23STLKasperi KapanenSHGWGAssists: Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 13:24STLNick LeddyAssists: Kevin Hayes, Alexey Toropchenko · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 17:53STLOskar SundqvistENAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:11STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:14CGYA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:14STLRobert Bortuzzo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:14CGYA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:14STLRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:30CGYYegor Sharangovich: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:12CGYIlya Solovyov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:16STLSammy Blais: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:36CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Interference2 min
- P3 8:23CGYDennis Gilbert: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:23STLTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:24CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Schenn – Sundqvist – Blais2:25
xG 0.02–0.02 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Saad – Kyrou – Thomas10:34
xG 0.79–0.80 (50%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Hayes – Toropchenko – Neighbours8:07
xG 0.20–0.32 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Kapanen9:10
xG 0.14–0.33 (31%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko13:14
xG 1.07–0.57 (65%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Scandella7:01
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Parayko – Perunovich3:57
xG 0.03–0.11 (20%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane10:08
xG 0.83–0.53 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Greer – Sharangovich – Duehr4:08
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Sharangovich – Coronato2:51
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hunt – Dube – Coronato3:11
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Gilbert14:20
xG 0.43–0.27 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Weegar – Hanifin13:53
xG 0.69–0.76 (48%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- Tanev – Solovyov12:45
xG 0.56–0.87 (39%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).