Fri, Oct 27, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Vegas Golden Knights 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 28 | 06 | 18 | 12 | 424 |
| VGK | 211 | 04 | 16 | 00 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Michael Amadio, William Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 3:52VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 13:20CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Corey Perry, Wyatt Kaiser · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 14:39CHIConnor BedardAssists: Nick Foligno, Alex Vlasic · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 1:11CHITaylor RaddyshUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 11:28VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 2:50CHIPhilipp KurashevPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:03CHIPhilipp Kurashev: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:59CHIConnor Murphy: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:21CHIWyatt Kaiser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:34CHISeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:03VGKWilliam Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bedard won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Raddysh – Reichel9:59
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Katchouk – Entwistle – Johnson8:01
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Johnson – Donato8:39
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Foligno – Kurashev – Bedard13:32
xG 0.47–0.62 (43%)attempts 16–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestTinordi – Kaiser8:36
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Tinordi – Jones5:54
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Murphy – Korchinski4:18
xG 0.11–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Howden9:40
xG 0.69–0.21 (77%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Amadio – Dorofeyev11:16
xG 0.42–0.47 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel11:21
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Stone – Stephenson – Cotter9:25
xG 0.11–0.64 (15%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo18:13
xG 0.75–0.49 (60%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore15:08
xG 0.63–0.57 (53%)attempts 10–18goals 2–1
- Hague – Korczak13:41
xG 0.44–0.62 (41%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).